Currency Forecasting

Currency Forecasting PDF
Author: Michael Roy Rosenberg
Publisher: Irwin Professional Pub
ISBN:
Size: 52.38 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 388
View: 6713

Get Book

This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co

Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks

Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks PDF
Author: Lean Yu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387717197
Size: 71.70 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 313
View: 653

Get Book

The book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks. It creates and applies the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange-rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges. Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks is targeted at both the academic and practitioner audiences. Managers, analysts and technical practitioners in financial institutions across the world will have considerable interest in the book, and scholars and graduate students studying financial markets and business forecast will also have considerable interest in the book. The book discusses the most important advances in foreign-exchange-rate forecasting and then systematically develops a number of new, innovative, and creatively crafted neural network models that reduce the volatility and speculative risk in the forecasting of foreign exchange rates. The book discusses and illustrates three general types of ANN models. Each of these model types reflect the following innovative and effective characteristics: (1) The first model type is a three-layer, feed-forward neural network with instantaneous learning rates and adaptive momentum factors that produce learning algorithms (both online and offline algorithms) to predict foreign exchange rates. (2) The second model type is the three innovative hybrid learning algorithms that have been created by combining ANNs with exponential smoothing, generalized linear auto-regression, and genetic algorithms. Each of these three hybrid algorithms has been crafted to forecast various aspects synergetic performance. (3) The third model type is the three innovative ensemble learning algorithms that combining multiple neural networks into an ensemble output. Empirical results reveal that these creative models can produce better performance with high accuracy or high efficiency.

Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting With Artificial Neural Networks

Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting with Artificial Neural Networks PDF
Author: Lean Yu
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 038771720X
Size: 65.79 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 316
View: 3195

Get Book

This book focuses on forecasting foreign exchange rates via artificial neural networks (ANNs), creating and applying the highly useful computational techniques of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to foreign-exchange rate forecasting. The result is an up-to-date review of the most recent research developments in forecasting foreign exchange rates coupled with a highly useful methodological approach to predicting rate changes in foreign currency exchanges.

Exchange Rate Determination

Exchange Rate Determination PDF
Author: Michael Rosenberg
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 9780071415019
Size: 51.20 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 267
View: 5912

Get Book

Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.

Medium Term Exchange Rate Forecasting

Medium Term Exchange Rate Forecasting PDF
Author: Mr.Guy Meredith
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451843933
Size: 41.53 MB
Format: PDF
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31
View: 926

Get Book

The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability.

Currency Strategy

Currency Strategy PDF
Author: Callum Henderson
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470029730
Size: 64.46 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 264
View: 6449

Get Book

Currency Strategy, Second Edition develops new techniques and explains classic tools available for predicting, managing, and optimizing fluctuations in the currency markets. Author Callum Henderson shows readers ho to use mathematical models to assist in the prediction of crises and gives practical advice on how to use these and other tools successfully. Given there such huge focus on China at the moment, the timing of this new edition is particularly important. The new edition will feature a thorough update on the key developments in the past 3 years, new chapters on emerging markets, an in-depth review of the markets of China and India and their currencies and much more.

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques Survey Data And Implications For The Foreign Exchange Market

Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques  Survey Data  and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market PDF
Author: Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Size: 43.21 MB
Format: PDF, Docs
Category : Electronic book
Languages : en
Pages : 26
View: 3017

Get Book

The paper presents new empirical results that elucidate the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half of the paper is an updated study of the exchange rate expectations held by market participants, as reflected in responses to surveys, and contains the following conclusions. First, the bias observed in the forward discount as a predictor of the future spot rate is not attributable to an exchange risk premium, as is conventionally believed. Second, at short horizons forecasters tend to extrapolate recent trends, while at long horizons they tend to forecast a reversal. Third, the bias in expectations is robust in the samples, based on eight years of data across five currencies. The second half of the paper abandons the framework in which all market participants share the same forecast, to focus on the importance of heterogeneous expectations. Tests suggest that dispersion of opinion, as reflected in the standard deviation across respondents in the survey, affects the volume of trading in the market, and, in turn, the degree of volatility of the exchange rate. An example of how conflicting forecasts can lead to swings in the exchange rate is the model of "chartists and fundamentalists." The market weights assigned to the two models fluctuate over time in response to recent developments, leading to fluctuations in the demand for foreign currency. The paper ends with one piece of evidence to support the model: the fraction of foreign exchange forecasting services that use "technical analysis" did indeed increase sharply during 1983-85, but declined subsequently

A Companion To Economic Forecasting

A Companion to Economic Forecasting PDF
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 140517191X
Size: 72.28 MB
Format: PDF
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 616
View: 2000

Get Book

A Companion to Economic Forecasting provides an accessible and comprehensive account of recent developments in economic forecasting. Each of the chapters has been specially written by an expert in the field, bringing together in a single volume a range of contrasting approaches and views. Uniquely surveying forecasting in a single volume, the Companion provides a comprehensive account of the leading approaches and modeling strategies that are routinely employed.

Forecasting And Hedging In The Foreign Exchange Markets

Forecasting and Hedging in the Foreign Exchange Markets PDF
Author: Christian Ullrich
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642004954
Size: 41.94 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 207
View: 5276

Get Book

Historical and recent developments at international ?nancial markets show that it is easy to loose money, while it is dif?cult to predict future developments and op- mize decision-making towards maximizing returns and minimizing risk. One of the reasons of our inability to make reliable predictions and to make optimal decisions is the growing complexity of the global economy. This is especially true for the f- eign exchange market (FX market) which is considered as one of the largest and most liquid ?nancial markets. Its grade of ef?ciencyand its complexityis one of the starting points of this volume. From the high complexity of the FX market, Christian Ullrich deduces the - cessity to use tools from machine learning and arti?cial intelligence, e.g., support vector machines, and to combine such methods with sophisticated ?nancial mod- ing techniques. The suitability of this combination of ideas is demonstrated by an empirical study and by simulation. I am pleased to introduce this book to its - dience, hoping that it will provide the reader with interesting ideas to support the understanding of FX markets and to help to improve risk management in dif?cult times. Moreover, I hope that its publication will stimulate further research to contribute to the solution of the many open questions in this area.

Global Corporate Finance

Global Corporate Finance PDF
Author: Suk H. Kim
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1405152249
Size: 60.68 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 544
View: 3016

Get Book

Global Corporate Finance, sixth edition provides studentswith the practical skills needed to understand global financialproblems and techniques. Retains the user-friendly format of previous editions whileoffering expanded material on corporate finance and governance,international markets, global financial dynamics and strategies,and risk management techniques Each chapter begins with a real-world case study to be explainedby theories and research findings presented throughout thechapter End-of-chapter mini-cases further reinforce students’understanding of the material covered This edition is supported by a comprehensive Study Guide and anInstructor's Manual, available atwww.blackwellpublishing.com/kim.

Multinational Financial Management

Multinational Financial Management PDF
Author: Alan C. Shapiro
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119559847
Size: 44.71 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 624
View: 4075

Get Book

The eleventh edition of Multinational Financial Management is a comprehensive survey of the essential areas of the international financial market environment, including foreign exchange and derivative markets, risk management, and international capital markets and portfolio investment. Designed for upper-level undergraduate and masters-level courses in international finance and management, this textbook offers readers a conceptual framework for analyzing key financial decisions of multinational firms. The authors both explain and simplify multinational financial management by illustrating how its basic principles share the same foundation as domestic corporate finance. Assuming no prior knowledge of international economics or finance, this substantially revised new edition builds upon the fundamental principles of domestic financial management to examine the unique dimensions of international finance. Readers are presented with a solid theoretical knowledgebase for examining decision problems, as well as practical analytical techniques that clarify the often-ambiguous guidelines used by international financial executives. All the traditional areas of corporate finance are explored from the perspective of a multinational corporation, focusing on elements rarely encountered in domestic finance such as multiple currencies, segmented capital markets, and political risks of nationalization or expropriation.